Lovisa Holdings

Lovisa Holdings closed at $27.92 on November 13, 22.3% below its $35.92 52-week high and 44.7% above its $19.30 52-week low. On the two-year chart the shares are recovering from a 2025–2026 decline that included a −12.8% session on Feb 19, 2026 and a March low; that February session left an unfilled gap at $28.38–$29.75, which now sits directly overhead. Short-term structure has improved: SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 re-formed on Oct 16, MACD has been above its signal since Oct 14, ADX reads 29.1 and Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200 is +6.9%, above zero. The counterweights are that overhead gap, a weekly dip in RS, the fact that this ordering has formed and broken several times in the past year, and two light sessions to end the week (0.499× average volume on the final day).

Snapshot as of November 13, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year frame shows a full cycle: a climb through mid-2025 to a peak around September 2025, then a long decline. The descent sharpened on Feb 19, 2026, when the shares fell −12.8% on about four times average volume; that session anchors the two-year aVWAP ($23.37) and left the unfilled gap between $28.38 and $29.75 that the data still lists as resistance. Price reached the $19.30 52-week low in March and then spent several months basing in the low-to-mid $20s, with SMA60 flattening underneath.

On the 90-day frame, Aug 26 jumped +12.7% on roughly three times average volume to a $27.62 close — the anchor of the 90-day aVWAP ($24.66) — and that move fully retraced to $21.63 by Sep 11. October brought a second test: Oct 8 fell −9.2% on about twice average volume, then price recovered within days. From mid-October the shares climbed in steps to a $28.70 close on Nov 5 (+5.9% that day) and have since held a narrow band between $27.92 and $28.46 on closing prices.

Condition timing: the close moved back above both SMA20 and SMA60 on Oct 13, and the SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 ordering — this bucket's defining condition — formed on Oct 16 (+4.5%, about average volume) and has held since. It is a re-formation rather than a first appearance: the price data shows the same ordering forming four earlier times in the past year (Feb 10, Jul 17, Jul 30 and Aug 27, 2026), each of which later broke. The Nov 5 gain came after the ordering was already in place. The 90-day Fibonacci swing runs from $24.97 (Oct 27) to $28.70 (Nov 5): the 23.6% retracement is $27.82, 38.2% is $27.28, 50% is $26.84 and 61.8% is $26.39. The two-year Fibonacci set (an Aug 26 → Sep 11, 2026 down-swing from $27.62 to $21.63) labels its levels as resistance, but price has already closed above every one of them, so they now sit beneath the share price.

② Volume

The 90-day panel's largest bars belong to late August and September — the Aug 26 jump, the September slide and a Sep 14 rebound — along with the Oct 8 drop. The mid-October advance came on mostly ordinary or below-average volume, and the Oct 16 session that completed the moving-average ordering traded at about the 20-day average rather than on a surge.

Nov 5 was the standout of the recent run, +5.9% on volume well above average. The screened ASX universe's median volume ratio ran about 0.59–1.23× from Oct 26 to Nov 13, and the market as a whole rose that day, so part of the move was broad; no company-specific catalyst was identified. In the final five sessions (Nov 9–13) volume moved between roughly half and one-and-a-half times average with no anomalous bar, and the week ended on 0.499× — the holding pattern under $28.70 has come on fading participation rather than heavy-volume declines.

③ MACD

The MACD line is 0.9891 against a signal of 0.8766, a histogram of +0.1126. The golden cross came on Oct 14, with both lines already near the zero line after a September trough, and the line has risen steadily since to its highest point on the 90-day panel. The histogram widened into early November and has narrowed over the last several sessions while price moved sideways. Momentum is positive but no longer accelerating; a cross back below the signal line would be the first sign that the October–November advance is losing force.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 64.4 (64.3 on the two-year frame). It dipped toward 40 on the Oct 8 drop, recovered through 50 within days and touched the 70 line around the Nov 5 surge before easing back as price paused. No RSI divergence is flagged on either frame. The reading describes firm but cooling momentum — the overbought print was brief, and the sideways week has let RSI reset without price giving up much ground.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is +6.9%, above zero (outperform) with a rising slope. A week earlier it was +9.01 and a month earlier −3.45, so it lost 2.07 points on the week (positive-slowing) while gaining 10.39 on the month (positive-accelerating). On the 90-day panel RS was deeply negative through August and September, climbed steadily through October and crossed above zero only in early November. On the two-year panel, this is the first sustained stretch above zero since late 2025. The selection's RS rank of 95 reflects that sharp monthly improvement; the slight weekly fade is worth watching, because a young above-zero reading can slip back under the line quickly.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.886, or 3.2% of price, which sets the 1×ATR reference at $27.03 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $26.15, about 6.4% below the close. ATR spiked after the late-August swing, eased through September and October, then lifted again around the Oct 8 drop and the Nov 5 surge before settling. ADX is 29.1 (28.7 on the two-year frame), above the 25 line that marks a strong trend, after a long stretch below 20 through September and October. ADX measures trend strength, not direction; alongside the rising moving averages it says the advance has gained persistence only recently. The $26.15 level sits just below the $26.39 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and the $26.61 SMA20.

⑦ OBV

OBV is tagged accumulation on the 90-day frame (above its MA20, rising) and early accumulation on the two-year frame (above its MA20, flat). No OBV divergence is flagged on either frame, so the November price highs are not contradicted by volume flow. On the two-year panel OBV dropped sharply around the February 2026 decline and has spent the months since recovering only modestly, so longer-term volume flow is still well below its 2025 levels.

The OBV-to-MA20 gap is +4.2% on the two-year frame and +243.71% on the 90-day frame. These percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence, and the 90-day figure is inflated because that frame's OBV MA20 sits close to zero — the shape (OBV above a rising average) is the more meaningful reading.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• The $28.38–$29.75 gap. A close above the $28.70 Nov 5 high on above-average volume would put price inside the February gap; repeated failures below it would point to a range.
• The Nov 5 gap at $27.35. Recent lows have dipped into it; a close below its lower edge would complete the fill and weaken the November structure.
• Relative strength. RS has just turned positive; a further weekly fade back toward zero would undercut the outperformance case.
• Company calendar. Lovisa has usually held its AGM with a trading update in the second half of November; no 2026 date has been confirmed here, but such an update could fall within the next two weeks and move the shares beyond what the chart shows.
• The $26.15 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the current structure.

Conclusion

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