Lovisa Holdings

Lovisa Holdings closed at $25.24 on October 16, a close above the prior 20-session closing high ($24.79, Sep 24) that came one week after an Oct 8 drop of −9.15% on the day the company announced the resignation of its Group CFO. The two-year chart is a large round trip — a rally to the low $40s in September 2025, a long decline that included a −12.8% day on Feb 19, 2026 and a $19.30 52-week low in March, and a broad $20–$27 range since. In the short term, every moving-average and MACD condition has re-formed within the last four sessions, and RSI and OBV both carry bullish divergences into the Oct 8 low. Against that, relative strength versus the S&P/ASX 200 is still negative, ADX is low at 12.5, and SMA20 and SMA60 are almost level with each other — the structure is a recovery inside a range, not yet an established trend.

Snapshot as of October 16, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year frame shows a full cycle. The share price climbed from around $21 in April 2025 to a peak above $40 in September 2025, then declined through the rest of 2025. A rebound toward $31 in mid-February 2026 ended with a −12.8% day on Feb 19 (about 4.3× average volume) that left an unfilled gap at $28.38–$29.75, and a slide into March set the $19.30 52-week low. Since then price has moved within a broad $20–$27 range. That gap is the nearest unfilled gap on either frame and sits well above the current price.

On the 90-day frame, a run of 20-session closing highs in late July and early August took price to $27.10 (Aug 7), and an Aug 26 spike of +12.7% (about 2.95× volume) closed at $27.62 before an unwind to $21.63 on Sep 11. Late September and early October formed a tight $24.06–$24.79 closing range. On Oct 8 the price fell −9.15% to $22.44 on the day the company announced that its Group CFO had resigned (six months' notice, with a successor to be announced); that bar is seven sessions before the basis date. Price then recovered over the following week.

The timing of each condition in the current run: the close moved back above both SMA20 and SMA60 on Oct 13 (+2.31%); SMA5 crossed above SMA20, and SMA20 edged above SMA60, to complete the SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 ordering on Oct 16; and the bucket's defining condition — a close above the prior 20-session closing high ($24.79, Sep 24) — also first appeared on Oct 16 (+4.47%, 1.034× volume). No company announcement was found for Oct 16. The 90-day Fibonacci swing runs from the $22.44 Oct 8 low to the $25.24 close: the 23.6% retracement is $24.58, 38.2% is $24.17 and 50% is $23.84. On the longer swing from the $27.62 Aug 26 high to the $21.63 Sep 11 low, the close sits just under the 61.8% retracement at $25.33, with 78.6% at $26.34.

② Volume

The largest bars on the 90-day panel are Aug 26 (the +12.7% spike), Sep 14 and Sep 18 (Sep 18 was the S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance trading day, busy across the market) and Oct 8 — the CFO-resignation drop, 1,105,748 shares or about 2.1× the 20-day average. The recovery that followed came on lighter turnover: roughly 0.5–0.7× average on Oct 12–14, 1.30× on the small Oct 15 decline, and 1.034× on the Oct 16 breakout bar (425,213 shares against a 411,315 average).

Market context matters here. The median stock in the screened ASX universe traded 0.62–0.89× its own average across Oct 12–16 except Oct 15 (1.28×). Adjusted for that, the Oct 16 bar ran at about 1.16× — modestly above the market's typical participation but far from an exceptional volume event. A close above a 20-session high on roughly average volume is a quieter breakout than a high-volume one, and it leaves the volume confirmation still to come. These adjustments are approximate, because each 20-day average includes the current day.

③ MACD

The MACD line is 0.1592 against a signal of 0.0806, a histogram of +0.0787. The latest golden cross printed on Oct 14, after the Oct 8 drop had briefly pushed the MACD line below its signal. Both lines sit only slightly above zero, so this is a cross from a neutral position rather than from deep negative territory. The August and early-September MACD peaks were considerably higher than the current reading, so momentum on this measure is recovering but has not returned to its summer level.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 58.1 on both frames, comfortably between the 50 midline and the 70 overbought line. A bullish RSI divergence is flagged: on the 90-day frame, price made a slightly lower low on Oct 8 ($22.44, RSI 39.02) than on Sep 18 ($22.62, RSI 36.96), while RSI made a higher low (the two-year frame shows 37.08 then 39.05). The price difference between the two lows is small — about 0.8% — so the divergence describes a double-bottom-like area more than a strong momentum signal. A divergence is the possibility of a turn, not a confirmed bottom; the subsequent recovery above $24.79 is the first follow-through.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is −3.45%, still below zero (underperforming) with a rising slope. A week earlier it was −9.78 and a month earlier −15.98, so it gained 6.33 points on the week and 12.54 points on the month — negative but improving on both horizons. The two-year panel shows RS well above zero through the 2025 rally, then a fall into the −30s after the February 2026 decline, and a gradual climb since mid-2026. A negative-but-improving reading means the stock is closing the gap with the index; it has not yet crossed into outperformance, and a cross above zero would be the next confirmation on this measure.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.984, or 3.9% of price, which places the 1×ATR reference at $24.26 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $23.27, 7.8% below the close. ATR stepped up after the Aug 26 bar, eased through early October, then rose again with the Oct 8 drop. ADX is 12.5 (12.2 on the two-year frame), in the ranging zone below 20 and drifting lower. ADX measures trend strength, not direction: at this level the chart is describing a range, and the breakout has not yet produced a measurable trend. A rise through 20 would be the first sign of one forming.

⑦ OBV

OBV is tagged accumulation on the 90-day frame (above its MA20 and rising) and early accumulation on the two-year frame (above its MA20 but flat). A bullish OBV divergence is flagged on both frames, at the same two lows as RSI: on the 90-day frame OBV was −2,649,085 at the Sep 18 low ($22.62) and −390,170 at the lower Oct 8 low ($22.44) — a higher OBV low despite the lower price (two-year frame: −10,474,621 then −8,215,706, a different cumulative baseline). Volume flow therefore did not deteriorate as much as price did on Oct 8.

The OBV-to-MA20 gap is +6.23% on the two-year frame; the 90-day figure of +156.06% overstates strength because the 90-day MA20 sits close to zero. These percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence. On the longer view, two-year OBV remains far below its 2025 levels after the heavy-volume declines of February–March 2026.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• The $25.33–$25.43 area. The 61.8% retracement and the upper Bollinger Band sit directly overhead. Closes above them would carry the breakout past the first resistance.
• Volume on further gains. The breakout bar traded about average volume. Advances above average would show broader participation than the Oct 16 bar.
• Mansfield RS crossing zero. At −3.45% and improving, a move above zero would mark outright outperformance versus the S&P/ASX 200.
• ADX rising through 20. At 12.5 the chart is still in a range; a rising ADX would show the move gaining persistence.
• The $23.27 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the recovery from the Oct 8 low.

Conclusion

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