Aurizon Holdings

Aurizon Holdings closed at $3.99 on November 13, 9.7% below its $4.42 52-week high and 18.0% above its $3.38 52-week low. Over two years the chart has climbed from a 2025 base under $3.10 to a mid-2026 peak, then lost about 10% in a single high-volume gap on Aug 17 and spent September basing between roughly $3.65 and $3.75. Since October the stock has ground higher in small steps, and on the basis date it closed above its prior 20-day high — by one cent, on about half its average volume. The lens for this page is a slow, low-volatility breakout: moving averages are stacked and MACD is positive, but price is now pressing into the band left open by the August gap, RSI sits near 70 with a marginal bearish divergence, and Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200 is still slightly below zero.

Snapshot as of November 13, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year frame opens near $3.40 in late 2024, drifts down to a low-close region around $2.89–$3.00 in April–May 2025, and then turns into a steady climb: about $3.60 by late 2025, a jump to $4.15 by Feb 27, 2026, and a peak in June 2026 (52-week high $4.42 intraday on Jun 11). Price stayed mostly above $4.10 into mid-August. On Aug 17, 2026 the stock gapped down from a $4.16 close to open at $3.86 and closed at $3.73 (−10.3%) on 24.6 million shares, the heaviest session on the 90-day panel. That session is three months before the basis date and anchors the 90-day aVWAP ($3.74).

After a low close of $3.60 on Aug 20, September was a tight base between about $3.65 and $3.75. The recovery came in small increments rather than a single bar: the close moved above SMA20 on Oct 12, above SMA60 on Oct 22, and the SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 ordering formed on Oct 30. The Nov 13 close of $3.99 (+0.25%) cleared the prior 20-day high of $3.98 by one cent. None of those condition dates coincided with a large move; the biggest daily gain in the last five sessions was +1.5% (Nov 12).

That grind has now carried price into the band left by the August gap, which runs from $3.86 up to $4.11 and is still open at its upper edge. The close also sits right on the 2-year aVWAP ($3.98, anchored Feb 16, 2026) and on the upper Bollinger Band ($3.99). On the 90-day Fibonacci (the Jul 22 $4.32 high to the Aug 20 $3.60 low), price has moved through the 50% retracement ($3.96); the 61.8% level ($4.04) and 78.6% level ($4.17) are next above. The two-year Fibonacci measures the February 2026 advance ($3.59 → $4.15) and puts its 23.6% level at $4.02, just above the close, and its 38.2% level at $3.94.

② Volume

The tallest bars on the 90-day panel cluster in the second half of August — Aug 17 (24.6 million shares), Aug 25 (23.5 million) and Aug 31 (18.7 million) — when the gap-down was being absorbed. Since then volume has settled into a much quieter pattern.

The advance of the past week came on shrinking turnover: daily volume fell from 6.43 million on Nov 9 to 2.87 million on Nov 13, and the basis-date breakout printed at 0.522× the 20-day average. The screened ASX universe's median volume ratio ranged 0.59–1.23× between Oct 26 and Nov 13, so the market as a whole was not unusually quiet. A breakout on below-average volume is the classic case where confirmation is missing: it shows a lack of supply rather than demonstrated demand. Aurizon has an on-market share repurchase in progress (up to A$250m, running to August 2027 — for example, 314,515 shares were repurchased on Nov 11), which is part of the background turnover but is not a discrete event in the window.

③ MACD

MACD crossed above its signal line on Sep 3 from well below zero, after the August decline, and has stayed above it since — more than two months. It moved above zero during October and now reads 0.0482 against a signal of 0.0386, a histogram of +0.0096. The histogram is positive but small, consistent with the measured pace of the advance. A golden cross that started deep below zero and has persisted this long is a sign of a recovery that has matured into an uptrend; a histogram turning negative would be the first sign of that momentum fading.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 69.6, just under the 70 line. A bearish RSI divergence is flagged on both frames: on Nov 3 the close was $3.94 with RSI at 70.27, and on Nov 13 the close was a higher $3.99 with RSI at a slightly lower 69.64 (two-year frame 70.18 and 69.60). The gap between the two RSI readings is well under one point, so this is a narrow divergence — it says momentum has not kept pace with the latest higher close, not that a top is in place. A divergence is a possibility of reversal, not a confirmation; it would only gain weight if price failed back below the early-November closes.

⑤ Mansfield RS

Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200 is −1.01%, the same on both frames: still marginally underperforming the index. It was −3.68% a week ago and −3.00% a month ago, so the weekly change is +2.67 points and the monthly change +1.99 — negative but improving, climbing toward the zero line. The panel shows RS fell below zero with the August gap and has been recovering since. A common misreading is to treat a rising RS line as outperformance: until RS crosses above zero, AZJ has only been losing ground to the index more slowly. A move above zero would be the first sign of genuine relative leadership.

⑥ ATR · ADX

ATR(14) is $0.061, or 1.5% of the share price — a low-volatility profile well below the levels seen around the August gap. The 1×ATR reference is $3.93 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level is $3.87, 3.1% below the close. That level lines up with SMA20 ($3.87), the two-year 50% retracement ($3.87) and the lower edge of the August gap band ($3.86), so several references converge in the same place. ADX(14) is 23.4, in the 20–25 range where a trend is forming but not yet strong. With ATR this low, normal daily noise is small, which is part of why a one-cent margin over the 20-day high was enough to register a breakout.

⑦ OBV

OBV is above its 20-day average on both frames. The two-year state is "early accumulation" with a flat slope, 18.98% above MA20; the 90-day state is "accumulation" with a rising slope. The 90-day figure of 87.94% above MA20 is inflated because that frame's OBV and its average sit near zero (the line is still slightly negative after the heavy-volume August decline), so it should be read as direction rather than size — and in any case that figure measures distance to its own average, not a divergence. No OBV divergence is flagged on either frame. The picture is of volume balance recovering steadily, but on the two-year frame it has not yet built a clear upward slope.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• Volume on the next up day. The breakout printed at 0.522× average; a close above $4.04 with volume above its 20-day average would supply the confirmation that is missing so far.
• The $4.11 gap top. Filling the August gap would remove the nearest overhead reference; stalling below it would keep price inside the gap band.
• Mansfield RS crossing zero. At −1.01% and improving, a move above zero would turn a slowing underperformance into actual outperformance of the S&P/ASX 200.
• RSI near 70. A higher high in RSI alongside price would cancel the narrow divergence; a drop under 60 with price slipping would give it weight.
• The $3.87 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level, where SMA20 and the gap's lower edge also sit, would undo the current structure.

Conclusion

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