Yancoal Australia

Yancoal Australia closed at $6.12 on October 30, unchanged on the day, after a one-session pullback from the Oct 27 close of $6.25 that found its floor above the 90-day anchored VWAP ($6.01) and recovered the next session. On Oct 29 the short, medium and longer moving averages lined up again (SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60) — a re-formation, not a first: the same ordering formed in March, April and late August 2026 and broke each time, most recently on Sep 18. The two-year picture is still a range: after the March–April 2026 spike to a $9.06 high, the stock has closed between $5.46 and $6.49 since late July, sits 32.5% below that high and just under its two-year anchored VWAP ($6.25), with ADX near 20 and Mansfield RS negative but improving.

Snapshot as of October 30, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

On the two-year chart, Yancoal spent most of 2025 between roughly $4.60 and $6.70, spiked in March–April 2026 to a $9.06 high, and gave the move back through May–July. Since late July closes have stayed between $5.46 (Aug 4) and $6.49 (Sep 9), and SMA20 and SMA60 have flattened inside that band. The 90-day chart shows the October swing: a $5.60 close on Oct 1, recovery above SMA20 from Oct 12, a $6.29 close on Oct 19, a pullback that briefly lost SMA60 on Oct 21–22, then a second push to $6.25 on Oct 27. The Oct 28 decline (−3.68%) closed at $6.02, right on the 38.2% retracement of the Oct 1 – Oct 19 swing ($6.03) and above the 90-day anchored VWAP ($6.01), and price was back at $6.12 by Oct 29. The two-year anchored VWAP ($6.25), the Oct 27 close and the Oct 19 high ($6.29) form a tight overhead band; one unfilled gap sits much higher at $7.89–$8.11 (Apr 8, 2026). Note that the 23.6% retracement ($6.13) and the two-year 78.6% retracement ($6.16) are tagged as support in the data but sit fractionally above the close, so they are treated here as at-the-price reference lines rather than support.

② Volume

The Oct 30 session traded 0.739× its 20-day average, and Oct 29 was similarly light. The Oct 23–27 advance came on modestly above-average volume, while the Oct 28 decline traded below average — a mild positive, since the pullback did not draw heavy supply. The larger participation spike of the month was Oct 19 (+5.71% on about 1.7× average volume), which fell in the window of the company's September-quarter production report but stayed well below the event-scale readings (8% moves on 3× volume) that mark a single-bar news reaction. No bar in the last 60 sessions moved more than 8% or traded more than 3× average. Market-wide volume ran in a normal 0.65–1.30× band through Oct 12–30 (0.92× on Oct 30), so these readings are not distorted by a broad-market event. The flip side of the light finish is that the latest bars show little conviction either way.

③ MACD

MACD crossed above its signal line on Oct 9 on the 90-day frame (Oct 8 on two years — a small warm-up difference between the calculations) from below zero, and the cross has now held for three weeks through two pullbacks. Both lines are positive (MACD 0.0576, signal 0.0397) and the histogram sits at +0.0179. These values are still close to zero: they describe momentum that has turned from mildly negative to mildly positive, not a strong impulse.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 54.2 — neutral, above the 50 midline and far from overbought. The data flags a bearish RSI divergence on both frames: at the Oct 27 push to $6.25, RSI reached 59.0, below the RSI readings of the mid-October advance. The divergence is shallow — the Oct 27 close was itself just below the Oct 19 close of $6.29, and the RSI gap is small — so it reads as a caution about fading momentum near the overhead band rather than a reversal signal. A divergence is only a possibility until price confirms it by losing nearby support.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is −1.54%: the stock still lags the index, but the line is rising. A week ago it was −1.71 and a month ago −4.90, so the change is +0.17 points on the week and +3.36 on the month — negative territory, improving toward zero. Most of the improvement came in early-to-mid October; the past week added little. Until RS holds above zero, the relative picture is "less weak" rather than outright strong.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.237, or 3.9% of the share price, slightly off its mid-October expansion as the latest bars narrowed. ADX is 20.0 on the 90-day frame (emerging) and 19.5 on two years (ranging) — right at the threshold between a range and a forming trend. A rising ADX from here would show the October swing gaining persistence; a reading that slips back under 20 would keep the four-month range as the dominant structure. The 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $5.65 sits about 7.7% below the close.

⑦ OBV

On the 90-day frame OBV is in accumulation — above its MA20 and rising. The distance to the MA20 is reported as +269.17%, but that figure is inflated because the 90-day OBV MA20 sits near zero (negative), so it says little about magnitude; on the two-year frame the state is early accumulation with a flat slope and a +28.83% distance. These percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence. Separately, the data flags a bullish OBV divergence on the 90-day frame: price made a lower low from $6.07 on Sep 3 to $5.88 on Oct 22, while OBV made a higher low (−7,709,837 to −6,843,204). Volume flow held up better than price into the October lows — a possible sign of support underneath, not a confirmed turn. No OBV divergence is flagged on the two-year frame.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• The $6.25–$6.29 band. The two-year anchored VWAP, the Oct 27 close and the Oct 19 high sit together overhead; closes above it on above-average volume would mark the first break of the October range top.
• The moving-average alignment. SMA20 leads SMA60 by under two cents; a close back below the $5.97–$5.98 pair would repeat the Sep 18 failure.
• The 90-day anchored VWAP at $6.01. It absorbed the Oct 28 pullback; closes below it would shift the short-term frame back toward the $5.88 low.
• Mansfield RS crossing zero. At −1.54% the line is close; a sustained move above zero would mark outperformance versus the S&P/ASX 200.
• The $5.65 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the October swing structure.

Conclusion

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