Helia Group

Helia Group closed at $5.42 on October 30, in the middle of a wide two-year range bounded by the $6.47 52-week high (February) and the $4.35 52-week low (March). This is a pullback-type setup rather than a trend: the close has been back above SMA20 and SMA60 since October 21, SMA5 sits above SMA20 and MACD has been above its signal line since October 12, but SMA20 ($5.25) is still below SMA60 ($5.29), ADX is only 13.0, and Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200 is hovering at −0.26%, essentially flat to the market. The chart reads as a stock recovering inside a sideways range, with the close now sitting within an unfilled ex-dividend gap whose top is $5.59.

Snapshot as of October 30, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year frame is a broad, choppy range rather than a trend. From the mid-$4s in late 2024, price jumped +17.2% on Feb 25, 2025 to above $6, then fell hard in March 2025 — a −15.9% session on the Mar 19 ex-dividend date ($0.69 per share in the price data) and a −25.6% session on Mar 24, 2025 on about 3.5× average volume, to a $3.61 close. It recovered to the mid-$5s by June, dropped −21.4% on Jul 2, 2025 on about 4.9× volume — the bar that anchors the two-year aVWAP ($5.38) — and then spent the following seven months between roughly $5.30 and $6.00. On Feb 25, 2026 price rose +16.4% to the $6.47 intraday 52-week high; the Mar 10, 2026 session fell −18.6% on an ex-dividend date ($0.83 in the price data), and the $4.35 52-week low followed on Mar 13. Since then price has moved between about $4.50 and $6.04.

On the 90-day frame, closes held $5.5–$5.74 into early July, then fell −10.1% on Jul 21 (about 2.0× volume) to the high $4s. Around the August half-year result, the Aug 11 (+10.2%, 2.99× in the daily data) and Aug 12 (+7.1%) sessions lifted the close to $6.04; Aug 11 anchors the 90-day aVWAP ($5.36). On Aug 20 the stock opened at $5.19 against a prior close of $5.68 and closed −11.1% — a session that coincides with a $0.43 per-share ex-dividend date in the price data, which accounts for most of the drop. That open left the one unfilled gap on both frames, $5.19–$5.59, tagged resistance; the $5.42 close is now inside it. September drifted between $5.02 and $5.51, and Oct 1 fell −7.3% to $4.93 (1.63× in the daily data, no catalyst identified here), the low of the current swing.

The timing of each condition: the close moved back above SMA20 and SMA60 on Oct 21 (+1.73%, an ordinary-volume bar), the same session SMA5 crossed above SMA20; both conditions had flickered on and off through October (Oct 9, Oct 13 and Oct 19 also closed above SMA20, with Oct 12, Oct 14 and Oct 20 back below). The full Close > SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 ordering last held on Aug 13 and Aug 19 and is not in place now, because SMA20 remains under a flat SMA60. Closes above the prior 20-session closing high came on Oct 23, Oct 29 and Oct 30. On the 90-day Fibonacci swing from $4.93 (Oct 1) to $5.34 (Oct 9), the 23.6% retracement is $5.24, 38.2% is $5.18 and 50% is $5.13; the data labels the $5.34 swing high as resistance, though the close is now above it. The two-year swing ($4.53 Jun 2 to $5.74 Jul 9) puts its 23.6% level at $5.45, tagged support in the data even though it sits just above the close — treat it as a nearby reference rather than a confirmed floor.

② Volume

The tallest bars on the 90-day panel are the Aug 11–12 advance and, before it, the Jul 21–23 decline cluster; the Aug 20 ex-dividend session and the Sep 30–Oct 1 pair were the other notable spikes. Since mid-October volume has been light to ordinary, and the 20-day average has eased to 626,910 shares; turnover is roughly A$3.4 million a day.

The Oct 30 session traded 650,725 shares, 1.038× the 20-day average (that average includes the day itself). The Oct 26–28 sessions were notably quiet, and the Oct 29 advance (+2.27%) came on below-average volume, around the company's late-October September-quarter update. The screened ASX universe's median ratio ran roughly 0.65–1.30× from mid-October and 0.92× on Oct 30, so HLI's participation was in line with the market rather than above it. The recovery has not yet been accompanied by a volume expansion.

③ MACD

The MACD line is 0.0350 against a signal of 0.0136, a histogram of +0.0214, after a golden cross on Oct 12. Both lines have climbed from below zero after the Oct 1 decline and now sit just above it, so this is an early turn rather than an extension of a strong trend. The histogram has been positive but small throughout, well below the levels seen during the August advance — consistent with the slow, low-ADX character of the recovery.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 57.9 on both frames, above the 50 midline and well below the 70 overbought line. On the 90-day panel RSI dipped near oversold in late July, briefly reached about 70 on the Aug 12 spike, and has since oscillated mostly between the mid-30s and about 60, with the Oct 1 low marking the most recent trough. No RSI divergence is flagged on either frame. The current reading describes moderate positive momentum, not a strong thrust.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is −0.26%, just below zero (underperforming by a hair). A week earlier it was +0.26 and a month earlier −4.47, so it lost 0.51 points on the week — negative and deteriorating on that horizon — while gaining 4.22 points on the month (negative and improving); the data's slope field reads "rising". In practice RS has been oscillating around the zero line since early October after sitting near −10 through much of August and September. The two-year panel shows RS mostly positive through 2025 and mostly below zero since the March 2026 drop. The selection's RS rank of 84 reflects the improvement from those lows rather than clear outperformance; a sustained move above zero has not happened yet.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.141, or 2.6% of price, which places the 1×ATR reference at $5.28 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $5.14, 5.2% below the close. ATR peaked after the Aug 20 ex-dividend session and has drifted lower since, ticking up only on the final bar. ADX is 13.0 (12.8 on the two-year frame), in the ranging zone below 20. ADX measures trend strength, not direction: the recent rise in price has not been persistent enough to register a trend, which matches the sideways two-year structure. The $5.14 level also sits beside the 50% Fibonacci retracement ($5.13) on both frames.

⑦ OBV

OBV is tagged accumulation on the 90-day frame (above its MA20 and rising) and early accumulation on the two-year frame (above its MA20 but flat). No OBV divergence is flagged on either frame. On the 90-day panel OBV has trended higher since late August, ending near the top of its 90-day range even while price stayed range-bound — net volume flow has been positive through the sideways phase. On the two-year panel OBV rose strongly through mid-2025 and has moved broadly sideways to slightly higher since.

The OBV-to-MA20 gap is +35.21% on the 90-day frame and +5.0% on the two-year frame. These figures measure distance from the moving average, not divergence, and the 90-day number is inflated because that MA20 sits on a short, low base.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• SMA20 versus SMA60. SMA20 is $0.04 below SMA60; a cross above would complete the moving-average ordering that is currently missing.
• The $5.48–$5.59 zone. The upper band and the top of the Aug 20 gap are the nearest overhead references; closes through them on above-average volume would show demand behind the recovery.
• Mansfield RS around zero. At −0.26% the stock is level with the market; a sustained move above zero would turn the monthly improvement into outperformance.
• ADX rising through 20. At 13.0 there is no measurable trend strength yet.
• The $5.14 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the October recovery structure.

Conclusion

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