Yancoal Australia

Yancoal Australia closed at $6.02 on October 23, the end of a three-session pullback from the Oct 19 close of $6.29 — a 20-session closing high set on 1.7× average volume in the window of the company's September-quarter production report. The pullback stopped at $5.88 on Oct 22, inside the cluster formed by SMA20 ($5.89), SMA60 ($5.92) and the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 – Oct 19 swing ($5.86), and price closed back above SMA60 on Oct 23. The two-year picture is less constructive: after a March–April 2026 spike to a $9.06 high, the stock has moved sideways in a roughly $5.40–$6.50 range since late July, still 33.6% below that high and below its two-year anchored VWAP ($6.25), with ADX at 18.3 and Mansfield RS negative but improving.

Snapshot as of October 23, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

On the two-year chart, Yancoal spent most of 2025 between roughly $4.70 and $6.70, then spiked in March–April 2026 to a $9.06 high before giving the move back through May–July. Since late July the price has moved sideways between about $5.40 and $6.50, and both SMA20 and SMA60 have flattened into that range. The 90-day chart shows the recent swing: a −7.0% drop to $5.60 on Oct 1, a recovery that put the close back above SMA20 on Oct 12 and above SMA60 on Oct 13, and a run to $6.29 on Oct 19. The following three sessions retraced to $5.88, briefly losing SMA60 on Oct 21; on Oct 23 the bar traded as low as $5.68 intraday before closing at $6.02, back above SMA60. The two-year anchored VWAP at $6.25 and the Oct 19 high at $6.29 form the overhead band; one unfilled gap remains further up at $7.89–$8.11 (Apr 8, 2026).

② Volume

The Oct 23 session traded 1.255× its 20-day average. The Oct 19 advance (+5.71%) came on about 1.7× average volume — roughly 2.15× after adjusting for market-wide activity — and it fell in the window of Yancoal's September-quarter production and sales report. That is a clear pickup in participation but well short of the event-scale readings (8% moves on 3× volume) that would mark a single-bar news reaction. The weaker detail is that the Oct 20 decline (−3.97%) traded slightly more shares than the Oct 19 advance, so the pullback was not on light volume at its start. Market-wide volume across Oct 19–23 sat in a normal 0.79–1.03× band, so these readings are not inflated by a broad-market event.

③ MACD

MACD crossed above its signal line on Oct 9 on the 90-day frame (Oct 8 on the two-year frame, a small warm-up difference between the two calculations) from below the zero line, and both lines are now slightly positive (MACD 0.0244, signal 0.0107). The histogram, at +0.0138, has flattened over the pullback rather than turning negative — momentum eased but the cross was not undone. Values this close to zero describe a market that has moved from mild downside momentum to neutral, not one with strong upside momentum.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 52.8 — neutral, just above the 50 midline. It peaked near the low 60s at the Oct 19 high and eased back below 50 during the pullback before turning up again on Oct 23. The reading leaves room in both directions and is far from overbought. No RSI divergence is flagged in the data, so the indicator neither confirms nor contradicts the recent swing.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is −1.71%: the stock is still underperforming the index, but the line is rising. A week ago it was −2.72 and a month ago −5.36, so the change is +1.01 points on the week and +3.65 on the month — negative territory, improving toward zero. The 90-day panel shows RS touching or briefly crossing zero in mid-October and again around Oct 19 without staying there. A sustained move above zero would mark outright outperformance; until then the relative trend is "less weak" rather than strong.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.245, or 4.1% of the share price, and it has risen sharply through October from a low near $0.20 — the daily ranges around the Oct 19 swing are wider than anything seen since August. ADX is 18.8 on the 90-day frame (18.3 on two years), below the 20 threshold: the chart is ranging, with no established trend. Rising volatility inside a trendless market means wider swings in both directions; the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $5.53 sits about 8.2% below the close for that reason.

⑦ OBV

On the 90-day frame OBV is in accumulation — above its MA20 and rising, with the gap to the MA20 at +25.52% (+22.89% on the two-year frame, where the state is early accumulation with a flat slope). These percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence. Separately, the data flags a bullish OBV divergence: price made a lower low from $6.07 on Sep 3 to $5.88 on Oct 22, while OBV made a higher low (−15,181,758 to −14,315,125). That suggests volume flow held up better than price through the pullback — a possible sign of a turn, not a confirmed one. No OBV divergence is flagged on the two-year frame.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• The $5.89–$5.92 cluster. SMA20 and SMA60 stopped the pullback on Oct 22–23. Closes back below it would turn the pullback into a test of the $5.60 swing low.
• The $6.25–$6.29 band. The two-year anchored VWAP and the Oct 19 high sit together overhead; closes above them on above-average volume would carry the price to the top half of the four-month range.
• Mansfield RS crossing zero. At −1.71% and improving, a sustained move above zero would mark outperformance versus the S&P/ASX 200 rather than just less underperformance.
• ADX through 20. At 18.8 the chart is still ranging; a rising ADX would show the swing gaining persistence.
• The $5.53 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the October swing structure.

Conclusion

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