Tabcorp Holdings

Tabcorp Holdings finished the week at $0.915, still 23.1% below its 52-week high of $1.19 but 38.6% above the $0.66 low that followed a violent May decline. The two-year chart is still organised around a single session — the gap of May 7, 2026, which left an unfilled window between $0.99 and $1.12 and opened a slide from the $1.17 swing high of May 1 to $0.68 by May 18 — and everything since has been a slow, orderly repair. That repair has now produced a fully aligned rising moving-average stack for the first time since the shock: the close sits above SMA5 ($0.911), SMA20 ($0.89) and SMA60 ($0.84), and MACD registered a golden cross on August 10. What it has not produced is a clearance of the ceiling. Price has stalled within half a cent of the 50% retracement at $0.92 and the two-year anchored VWAP at $0.9195, it arrived there on 0.46× average volume, the RSI carries an unresolved bearish divergence, and Mansfield relative strength versus the S&P/ASX 200 is still negative at −5.9%.

Snapshot as of August 14, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The 90-day window divides cleanly in two. The first half is the May 7 gap and the slide it opened, from the $1.17 swing high to $0.68 on May 18; the second is a patient staircase off that base which has lifted the close to $0.915. The moving averages now read as textbook alignment — SMA5 $0.911 above SMA20 $0.893 above SMA60 $0.840, all three rising, with the close above every one of them. That is the first genuinely clean stack since the shock, and it is the strongest structural argument on the page. The SMA60 at $0.840 remains the line under the whole repair: reclaimed in July, it has not been retested since.

The Bollinger Bands frame the immediate range at $0.859–$0.928 around a $0.893 mid, with band width down to 7.79% — tighter than at any point since the May shock and a meaningful compression from the double-digit readings of a fortnight ago. Compression of that kind describes a market coiling, not a direction, so it is a setup observation rather than a directional one. The anchored VWAPs remain the informative split: price stands 15.5% above the 90-day aVWAP of $0.792 anchored at the May 7 gap session, so anyone positioned since the shock is on the right side of the average, but it is still a fraction below the two-year aVWAP of $0.920. That $0.920 line sits almost exactly on the 50% retracement of the May down-swing ($0.920), which makes the $0.92 area the single most consequential price on the chart — and the close has now parked directly beneath it for a second consecutive week. Above there, the 61.8% retracement at $0.978 guards the lower edge of the unfilled May 7 gap between $0.99 and $1.12, which remains the dominant overhead supply zone. Below, the 38.2% retracement at $0.862 and the lower band at $0.859 form the next shelf; an older unfilled gap at $0.63–$0.645 from May 2025 sits far beneath the current structure.

② Volume

Friday traded 2,200,456 shares against a 20-day average of 4,799,020 — a Vol/Avg ratio of 0.46×, one of the quietest sessions of the 90-day window. This is the most important qualification on the page. Price has climbed to the $0.92 ceiling on conspicuously light turnover, and an advance into known resistance without volume behind it is the classic unconfirmed approach: the move can be genuine, but the tape has not yet paid for it. Beginners frequently treat proximity to a breakout level as the signal itself; the volume panel says the market has not committed either way.

The panel is still visually dominated by the May cluster, where the gap session and the days around it printed the largest bars of the entire two-year chart at many multiples of the running average. Bars of that scale are the fingerprint of a news event rather than ordinary two-way trade, and they continue to distort every volume-derived average that passes through them — the 20-day average has been decaying steadily since as those bars roll out of the window. Since July the bars have been small and evenly split between green and red, with no repeated conviction spike on up-days. Turnover of roughly A$2m on the session and A$4m on the 20-day average is adequate for a name of this size, so volume and OBV readings here carry more weight than they would in a thin small-cap, but the recent bars are simply too small to confirm anything.

③ MACD

MACD crossed back above its signal line on August 10, 2026, reversing the dead cross of the previous week. The two lines are again almost on top of each other — 0.0160 against 0.0158, with a histogram of just +0.00018 — so this is the shallowest possible crossing, and the third change of sign in a fortnight. Both lines sit above the zero line, which keeps the medium-term configuration constructive, but a cluster of crossings this tight is what a flat, coiled market produces rather than a momentum turn. It is consistent with an ADX of 13.

The context that matters is the location: the crossing occurred as price probed the $0.92 confluence. A histogram that widens positively from here while price clears $0.928 would confirm that momentum led the move; another sign flip within days would mark the whole sequence as noise inside the range. Reading a hair-thin cross as a momentum event is one of the more expensive habits in chart work, and the magnitude here argues for waiting on the histogram rather than the crossover.

④ RSI

The RSI reads 57.6 — comfortably above the 50 pivot, nowhere near either extreme, and pointing to a market with mild upward bias rather than pressure. The signal worth studying is the bearish divergence between two specific peaks: on July 16 price closed at $0.910 with the RSI at 67.2, and on August 12 price closed marginally higher at $0.915 while the RSI reached only 60.4. A higher price high on a lower momentum high is the textbook regular bearish divergence, and it says the second push into the $0.91–$0.92 area carried less force than the first.

Two cautions belong alongside that reading. A divergence is a possibility of exhaustion, not a verdict — it can persist for weeks or be erased outright by one strong session, and a bottoming or topping signal is not, by itself, confirmation of anything. Confirmation here would be a close below the $0.89 shelf; without it, the divergence is a yellow flag on an otherwise neutral oscillator. Equally, neither peak reached overbought territory — 67.2 fell short of 70 — which limits how much exhaustion can reasonably be read into the pattern. The 90-day panel also shows the RSI grinding in a narrow 48–62 band since June, which is the oscillator signature of a range, not of a topping process.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200 stands at −5.9%, still in underperform territory. The direction is more nuanced than the level, and the two horizons disagree. A week ago the reading was −8.9%, so on a weekly view the gap to the index has narrowed by 3.0 points — in negative territory that is improvement, movement back toward zero, not merely a slower decline. On the monthly view the reading was −5.0%, so the stock is 0.9 points worse than a month ago: on that horizon it is deterioration, not improvement. The JSON slope tag reads flat, which fits a series that has traded sideways in negative territory while these smaller swings played out.

The two-year panel puts both facts in frame. RS was deeply negative through late 2024, spent most of 2025 and early 2026 above zero as an index outperformer, then collapsed through zero in May and has ground sideways below it ever since. That is the honest context for everything above: the price repair is real, but relative to the index the stock has not yet earned its way back. Negative RS remains a standing caution even where the price structure looks constructive, because capital tends to concentrate in names already outperforming. Reading a negative RS that is merely getting less negative as though it were outperformance is one of the most common misinterpretations of this panel — the line is still below zero.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.036, or 3.9% of price. That has ticked up slightly over recent sessions but remains far below the post-gap spike, and it is the figure that sizes the structural reference levels: 1×ATR below the close sits at $0.879 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $0.843. The second is notable because it lands almost exactly on the SMA60 at $0.840, so the volatility-derived line and the structural line agree — a useful convergence, and the same one this chart produced a week ago at a slightly lower price.

ADX(14) at 13.1 on the 90-day frame (12.7 on the two-year) is far below the 20 threshold and lower than it was a fortnight ago, which classifies this firmly as a ranging market with no established trend. It is worth restating that ADX measures strength, not direction: a low reading is not bearish, it means neither side is in control. In practice that argues for treating the $0.859–$0.928 Bollinger channel as the operative structure and treating any single-session break of it sceptically until ADX begins rising through 20. A compressed band width and a sub-15 ADX together describe a market storing energy without disclosing which way it will spend it.

⑦ OBV

Both timeframes now agree, and both have turned constructive. On the 90-day window OBV reads early accumulation: −7,353,783 against an MA20 of −8,907,887, so above its average, with a divergence reading of +17.5% and a flat slope. The two-year window carries the same state tag — early accumulation, above an MA20 of −93,132,179, flat — with a milder +1.7% divergence. That is a change of character from the previous fortnight, when both frames read as early distribution.

Two qualifications keep this honest. First, the slope is flat on both horizons: being above the moving average is not the same as rising, and a flat OBV under an advancing price is still an absence of ratification rather than the presence of it. Second, the two-year panel continues to carry a bearish non-confirmation marker, because the cumulative line remains far below where it stood before May while price has recovered most of the ground — the heaviest turnover of the past year is still attached to the decline, not to the repair. OBV is a cumulative measure and a shock of that magnitude takes months to work off, so the constructive development to look for is the 90-day line turning up from flat while price holds the $0.89 shelf.

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• The $0.92 confluence of the 50% retracement and the two-year anchored VWAP — a second week of stalling there, and the first decisive daily close through it, is the defining event on this chart.
• Volume: at 0.46× the 20-day average, nothing that happens at the ceiling is confirmed. A move through $0.928 on above-average turnover would carry very different weight from one on today's bars.
• The $0.893 shelf (SMA20 and Bollinger mid) — a close beneath it is the confirmation the bearish RSI divergence currently lacks.
• Mansfield RS versus the S&P/ASX 200: the weekly improvement from −8.9% to −5.9% needs to continue toward zero. Renewed slippage would keep this a laggard regardless of price structure.
• ADX rising through 20 and the 90-day OBV slope turning up from flat — together they would be the first evidence that the compression is resolving into a trend rather than another swing inside the range.

Conclusion

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