Santos

Over two years Santos has moved from a 2025 base in the $5.90–$6.50 area into a rising structure that has carried price to within 3.3% of its 52-week high, with the 2-year anchored VWAP ($7.41) and the 60-day average ($8.44) both well below the close. The short-term picture is a pullback inside that uptrend: after closing at a swing high of $9.32 on October 19, the stock gave back ground in the last two sessions to $9.05, back toward the 20-day average. The lens for this week is whether that retracement settles in the shallow Fibonacci zone, or whether an RSI bearish divergence and heavier volume on the down days point to a deeper reset.

Snapshot as of Oct 23 close

① Price & Moving Averages

The averages are stacked in bullish order (SMA5 $9.23 > SMA20 $8.84 > SMA60 $8.44), all three sloping up. This alignment first formed on August 3, broke twice (August 6 and October 2) and re-formed on October 8, so the current run is about two weeks old rather than a continuous three-month stack. The close has been above the 60-day average since August 7 and back above the 20-day average since October 8.

The Fibonacci grid is drawn on the up-swing from $8.39 (October 1, the 100% anchor) to $9.32 (October 19, the 0% anchor). The close of $9.05 now sits below the 23.6% retracement ($9.10) and just above the 38.2% level ($8.96); the 50% retracement ($8.86) lines up almost exactly with the 20-day average and the middle Bollinger band. In the last session price also slipped back under the 5-day average, which is the first step of a pullback rather than evidence of a broken trend.

② Volume

Friday's volume was 1.48× its 20-day average (14.76 million shares against an average of 9.94 million). Across the ASX universe, median volume relative to its own average ran at roughly 0.79–1.03× over October 19–23, so this was a normal week for the market and the elevated reading is specific to Santos (roughly 1.4× after that market adjustment on October 22 and 23).

The detail worth noting is the direction: the two heaviest sessions of the week were the two down days. The run to the October 19 swing high came on lighter volume. Rising volume into a pullback is not, by itself, a break of trend, but it is the opposite of the quiet, drying-up volume that usually characterises a healthy retracement. No bar in the last 60 sessions exceeded a 6% move in either direction or 2.5× average volume.

③ MACD

MACD (0.206) remains above its signal line (0.186) after a golden cross on October 12, and both lines are well above zero. The histogram, however, has shrunk to +0.020 and the MACD line has turned down over the last two sessions, so momentum behind the October advance is fading. A cross back below the signal line would mirror the pattern seen in early October, when the previous dead cross preceded the dip to $8.39.

④ RSI

RSI(14) has eased to 58.3 after touching the overbought zone. A regular bearish divergence is flagged: price made a higher peak on October 19 ($9.32, RSI 72.66) than on September 14 ($8.73, RSI 73.67), while RSI made a slightly lower peak. The RSI gap between the two peaks is small, so this is a mild divergence rather than a pronounced one.

A divergence signals the possibility of a top, not a confirmed one. The reading at 58 is still in bullish territory; the more meaningful test would be whether RSI holds above the 50 line, which has broadly acted as a floor during the August–October advance.

⑤ Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200

Mansfield RS is +21.45% against the S&P/ASX 200, firmly in outperforming territory, and has been above zero since July. Compared with a week ago (+23.08%) it has slipped 1.63 points, so relative strength is positive but slowing in the short run; against a month ago (+19.81%) it is still 1.64 points higher, i.e. positive and accelerating on the monthly view. The two-year panel shows RS near the top of its range for the period, which is a supportive backdrop even while the latest week cooled.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.197, or 2.2% of price, which puts the 1×ATR reference at $8.85 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $8.66. ATR ticked up in the latest session as the daily range widened on the down move. ADX reads 26.2 on the 90-day series (25.6 on the 2-year series), just above the 25 threshold that separates a forming trend from a strong one. Because ADX measures strength rather than direction, the reading confirms that the move since early October has had some persistence; it does not by itself say which way the next leg goes.

⑦ OBV

On the 90-day view OBV is tagged accumulation: above its 20-day MA (by 0.72%) with a rising slope. On the 2-year view it is early accumulation: above its MA (by 0.17%) but flat. Both readings are positive, though thin — the last two heavy down sessions have pulled OBV back toward its moving average. No OBV divergence is flagged in the data on either timeframe, so this is a softening to watch rather than a signal.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• Whether the pullback stabilises in the $8.85–$8.96 cluster (38.2%–50% retracement and the 20-day average).
• Volume on any further down days — a return to below-average volume would ease the concern raised this week.
• RSI versus the 50 line, and whether a new price high comes with a higher RSI peak to cancel the divergence.
• MACD: a dead cross below the signal line is the momentum condition tied to the deeper-reset scenario.
• Mansfield RS direction after this week's 1.63-point dip.

Conclusion

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