Credit Corp Group

Credit Corp Group closed at $14.77 on October 23, above its prior 20-session closing high ($14.56, Oct 9) and at its highest close since late October 2025. The two-year chart is a deep round trip — a slide from about $18 to a $9.50 52-week low in March 2026, after a −16.7% day on Feb 3 — followed by a seven-month recovery that has carried relative strength versus the S&P/ASX 200 to +15.2%, its strongest reading on the two-year panel. The short-term picture is constructive but quiet: the moving-average ordering re-formed on Oct 22 and MACD crossed up on Oct 23, yet the breakout bar traded below its 20-day average volume (0.875×) and ADX at 11.0 says the advance is slow and grinding rather than trending hard. The setup reads as a steady relative-strength leader testing the upper edge of a tight range, with volume confirmation still missing.

Snapshot as of October 23, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year frame shows two large swings. Price fell from about $18 in late 2024 to the high $11s in April 2025, then rallied to $17.73 in early August 2025 on a +16.2% day before giving that back into a roughly $13.50–$14.30 range over the 2025–26 summer. On Feb 3, 2026 the share price dropped −16.7% in a single session on 2.35 million shares — the bar that anchors the two-year aVWAP ($12.31) — and the decline extended to the $9.50 52-week low in March. Since April the chart has been a steady recovery, with SMA20 above SMA60 from mid-2026 and the two-year aVWAP turning into support well below price. There are no unfilled gaps on either frame.

On the 90-day frame, price climbed through July to $13.84, then fell −7.0% on Aug 4 on 2.91 million shares, about 7× average — the bar that anchors the 90-day aVWAP ($13.75). It recovered most of that the next day (+4.5%), based near $13.11–$13.20 in mid-August, and rose to a $14.28 swing high on Aug 26. A dip in mid-September began with a −2.6% bar on Sep 14, which coincides with the stock's ex-dividend date ($0.455 per share in the price data), and bottomed at $13.60 on Sep 16–17. Since then closes have held a narrow $13.85–$14.56 band until the Oct 21–23 advance to $14.77.

The timing of each condition: the close has stayed above SMA60 since Aug 3. The bucket's defining condition — a close above the prior 20-session closing high — first appeared in this run on Oct 7 and Oct 9, then again on Oct 23 (+1.79%), a bar with no company announcement found. The Close > SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 ordering first formed on Aug 24, broke on Sep 15, re-formed on Sep 24, broke on Oct 20 and re-formed on Oct 22; the close moved back above SMA20 on Oct 21. The close is now slightly above the upper Bollinger Band ($14.72) with the band only 5.97% wide, a sign of an expansion starting from a compressed range. On the 90-day Fibonacci swing from $13.11 (Aug 17) to $14.28 (Aug 26), the 23.6% retracement is $14.00, 38.2% is $13.83 and 50% is $13.69; the chart labels the $14.28 swing high as resistance, but price is now above it.

② Volume

The tallest bar on the 90-day panel is the Aug 4 decline (2.91 million shares), followed by its Aug 5 rebound. Volume has since been steady and light: the 20-day average is now 221,676 shares, and turnover is modest at roughly A$3 million a day, which matters for spreads and for how much weight any single bar can carry. The mid-September bars around the ex-dividend date and the Sep 18 session (a market-wide index rebalance day) were the only other notable clusters.

The Oct 23 breakout traded 193,956 shares, 0.875× the 20-day average (that average includes the day itself). The screened ASX universe's median ratio ran 0.79–1.03× across Oct 19–23 — a normal week — so the bar was roughly in line with, not above, typical market participation. None of the last five sessions exceeded 1.09× average. A close above a 20-session high on below-average volume is a weaker form of breakout: it shows price drifting up rather than being pushed by demand, and the volume confirmation is still to come.

③ MACD

The MACD line is 0.1337 against a signal of 0.1110, a histogram of +0.0227, after a golden cross on Oct 23. The line was above its signal from Oct 5 to Oct 14, slipped below during the Oct 15–20 pullback, and has now crossed back. Both lines stay above zero, so this is a re-cross within an existing uptrend rather than a turn from negative territory. The current MACD level is well below the late-August peak, which fits the slow, low-momentum character of the recent advance.

④ RSI

RSI(14) is 63.2 on both frames, above the 50 midline and below the 70 overbought line. Over the 90-day window RSI has mostly held between about 45 and 70, dipping toward the mid-40s during the September pullback and turning higher in the last three sessions. No RSI divergence is flagged on either frame. The reading leaves room for further gains before overbought conditions, but on its own it describes firm momentum rather than a strong thrust.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Mansfield RS vs the S&P/ASX 200 is +15.19%, above zero (outperforming) with a rising slope. A week earlier it was 11.11 and a month earlier 12.10, so it gained 4.08 points on the week and 3.09 points on the month — positive and accelerating on both horizons. The two-year panel puts this in context: RS spent most of 2025 and early 2026 below zero, reached the high −20s in March 2026, crossed above zero in late August and has climbed since. This is the strongest feature of the chart; the selection's RS rank of 81 reflects the same outperformance.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $0.320, or 2.2% of price, which places the 1×ATR reference at $14.45 and the 2×ATR technical invalidation level at $14.13, 4.3% below the close. ATR jumped after the Aug 4 bar and has eased steadily since, sitting near the low end of its two-year range. ADX is 11.1 (11.0 on the two-year frame), deep in the ranging zone below 20 and still drifting lower. ADX measures trend strength, not direction: the price has risen, but so gradually that the directional reading has not registered a trend. A rise through 20 would be the first sign of one forming. Low ATR also means the invalidation level sits close to price, so ordinary noise can reach it.

⑦ OBV

OBV is tagged accumulation on the 90-day frame (above its MA20 and rising) and early accumulation on the two-year frame (above its MA20 but flat). No OBV divergence is flagged on either frame. On the two-year panel, OBV rose sharply through June and July 2026 and has held most of that gain since, a sign that the recovery has been backed by net positive volume flow over the longer view. On the 90-day panel, OBV fell after the Aug 4 bar and has been rebuilding since mid-September.

The OBV-to-MA20 gap is +6.06% on the two-year frame; the 90-day figure of +192.1% overstates strength because the 90-day MA20 sits close to zero. These percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels & Volatility References

What to Watch

• Volume on further gains. The breakout bar ran at 0.875× average. Advances above average volume would show demand behind the move that the Oct 23 bar did not.
• The $14.56 level. Holding above the prior closing high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it returns price to the October range.
• ADX rising through 20. At 11.1 the chart has no measurable trend strength; a rising ADX would show the advance gaining persistence.
• Mansfield RS. At +15.19% and accelerating, a flattening or turn lower would be the first sign of the outperformance fading.
• The $14.13 level. A daily close below the 2×ATR technical invalidation level would undo the breakout structure.

Conclusion

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